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Pivot Decision Framework

Distinguishes a failing execution from a failing thesis, since the two need opposite responses.

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CategoryStrategyForFounders, ConsultantsTested onClaudeChatGPT

Running it, start to finish

  1. State the original thesis in its four parts.
  2. Identify which part is failing and whether it was executed well.
  3. Look hard at whatever worked unexpectedly.

What you get back

The output this produces, every time.

  • Tests problem, solution, pricing and distribution independently rather than as one failure.
  • Asks whether the thesis was executed properly before it is abandoned.
  • Looks for the anomaly, which is where pivots usually find their direction.

Getting better results

Where this usually goes wrong, and how to avoid it.

  • Check distribution before blaming the product. A good product nobody encounters is indistinguishable from a bad one, and this is the most common misdiagnosis.
  • Follow the thing that unexpectedly worked. The segment that retained or the use case people invented is usually the direction, and it is easy to dismiss as noise.
  • Check the runway supports the pivot. Pivoting without enough time to test the new direction produces a second failure with no evidence from either.

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