Market Sizing
Builds bottom-up with every assumption stated, since top-down sizing is unfalsifiable and therefore useless.
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Running it, start to finish
- Define the buyer narrowly and precisely.
- Build bottom-up, labelling every assumption's source.
- Cross-check the total against a known revenue figure.
What you get back
The output this produces, every time.
- Builds bottom-up so people can disagree with a specific input rather than with the total.
- Labels which assumptions are sourced and which are guesses, which a spreadsheet otherwise hides.
- Cross-checks against a known revenue figure, which catches most order-of-magnitude errors.
Getting better results
Where this usually goes wrong, and how to avoid it.
- Narrow the buyer definition. A vague definition silently includes people who would never buy, producing a large number that supports no decision.
- Focus on the addressable figure. It is the one that should drive decisions, and it is the one most often skipped between the total and the aspiration.
- Sanity-check against an incumbent. A bottom-up figure implying several times the largest player's revenue almost always contains an error.
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Written for The AI University. Every prompt in this library is original work — authored, tested and revised here, not collected from elsewhere. 365 of them, free with an account.